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Project
Acronym:  
Name: Space Weather: Forecasting the Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections 
Project status: From: 2006-05-15 To: 2007-05-15 (Completed)
Type (Programme): BILAT 
Project funding: -
International partner
Organisation Name: Airforce Research Laboratories, European Office of Aerospace Research and Development 
Organisation adress: European Office of Aerospace Research and Development, 223/231 OLD MARYLEBONE RD LONDON NW1 5TH, UK  
Organisation country: Sjedinjene američke države 
Contact person name: George W. York 
Contact person email: Email 
Croatian partner
Organisation name: Geodetski fakultet 
Organisation address: Kaciceva 26, 10000 Zagreb 
Contact person name: Bojan Vršnak
Contact person tel:
+385 1 4639 279  Contact person fax: +385 1 4828 081 
Contact person e-mail: Email 
Short description of project
Observations of the Sun by space-borne coronagraphs revealed violent eruptions of large-scale coronal structures, widely known as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Huge clouds of magnetoplasma are launched into interplanetary (IP) space at speeds from several hundreds to more than 2000 km/s, often driving a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) forehead shock. A significant fraction of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) is directed towards the Earth, and few days after the take-off, such ICMEs encounter the Earth, causing dramatic changes in the Space Weather conditions. The Space Weather effects of ICMEs can severely affect functioning of high-tech electronic devices in spacecrafts and high-altitude airplanes, and in most severe cases can affect ground-based technological systems such as electric power grids. Direct consequences are, e.g., problems in telecommunications and GPS-systems, continental-scale power outages, etc. A successful Space Weather forecast-model could be used to alert for appropriate actions to diminish direct damages and indirect detriments. The primary step of any forecast-model necesarrly is a reliable prediction of ICME arrivals. 
Short description of the task performed by Croatian partner
The main task of the project is an advanced method of forecasting the ICME arrivals. Some aspects of the proposed research are aimed to provide an efficient use of the data from the forthcoming STEREO mission (scheduled launch: February 2006). The final product will be a simple, user-friendly algorithm for predicting the ICME arrival based on several relevant CME parameters determined from coronagraph data. 


   

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